MODEL METHODOLOGY

Probability before prediction.

Independent model families measure disagreement and record why a market was approved or rejected.

01

Chronological feature store

Every feature is cut off before kickoff and can be regenerated with source timestamps and missingness flags.

02

Dixon–Coles + Elo

A constrained score model produces goal matrices while Elo tracks strength through time.

03

Dedicated draw intelligence

Low-scoring mass, strength similarity and competition draw rates correct draw underprediction.

04

Uncertainty and abstention

Lower bounds, data quality and model disagreement determine whether the platform says “no signal.”